Volatility Indicator

Bollinger Bands

A technical analysis tool that measures market volatility and identifies potential overbought and oversold conditions.

Overview

Bollinger Bands were developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s. They consist of three lines:

  • Upper Band: Middle Band + (2 × Standard Deviation) — Shows the upper volatility boundary
  • Middle Band: 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) — The baseline trend
  • Lower Band: Middle Band - (2 × Standard Deviation) — Shows the lower volatility boundary

Mathematical Formula

Step 1: Calculate the Middle Band (SMA)

Middle Band = SMA(Close, period)
= (Close₁ + Close₂ + ... + Close₂₀) / 20

Step 2: Calculate Standard Deviation

σ = √[(Σ(Close - SMA)²) / period]

Standard deviation measures how spread out prices are from the average.

Step 3: Calculate Upper and Lower Bands

Upper Band = Middle Band + (2 × σ)
Lower Band = Middle Band - (2 × σ)

Practical Example: AAPL Stock

Given: 20 days of AAPL closing prices

[150, 151, 152, 150, 149, 151, 153, 154, 152, 151, 150, 152, 154, 156, 155, 154, 156, 158, 157, 159]

Step 1: Calculate Middle Band

SMA = (150 + 151 + ... + 159) / 20 = 153.05

Step 2: Calculate Standard Deviation

σ = √(193.95 / 20) = 3.11

Step 3: Calculate Bands

Upper Band = 153.05 + (2 × 3.11) = 159.27
Middle Band = 153.05
Lower Band = 153.05 - (2 × 3.11) = 146.83

Parameters Explained

Period Setting (Default: 20)

  • Shorter (10-15): More sensitive, more signals, more false signals
  • Longer (30-50): Smoother, fewer signals, more reliable

When to adjust:

  • • Day trading → 10-15 period
  • • Swing trading → 20 period (default)
  • • Position trading → 30-50 period

Standard Deviations (Default: 2)

  • 1.5 σ: Narrower bands, more signals
  • 2.0 σ: Default, balanced approach (95% of price action)
  • 2.5 σ: Wider bands, fewer signals

Trading Signals

1. Bollinger Bounce

Strategy: Price bounces off the bands

Setup: Price touches lower band in uptrend

Entry: Buy when price bounces off lower band

Exit: Sell when price reaches middle or upper band

Best for: Ranging markets

2. Bollinger Squeeze

Strategy: Low volatility precedes high volatility

Setup: Bands narrow significantly (lowest in 6 months)

Entry: Wait for breakout above/below bands

Exit: When bands start widening significantly

Best for: Breakout trading

3. Band Walking

Strategy: Strong trends "walk" along a band

Setup: Price consistently touches upper band

Entry: Buy on pullbacks to middle band

Exit: When price breaks below middle band

Best for: Strong trend confirmation

4. Middle Band Crossover

Strategy: Middle band acts as dynamic support/resistance

Setup: Price crosses middle band (20 SMA)

Entry: Buy when price crosses above middle band with volume

Exit: When price crosses back below middle band

Best for: Trend following

Common Mistakes

Treating Bands as Fixed Support/Resistance

Problem: Bands are dynamic and change with volatility

Solution: Use bands to gauge relative price levels, not absolute levels

Trading Every Touch

Problem: Not every band touch is a reversal signal

Solution: Confirm with other indicators (RSI, volume, candlestick patterns)

Ignoring the Trend

Problem: Going against the trend when price "walks" a band

Solution: In strong trends, price can stay overbought/oversold for extended periods

Using Same Settings for All Assets

Problem: Different assets have different volatility profiles

Solution: Backtest and optimize parameters for each asset

Best Practices

Confirmation

Always confirm signals with:

  • • Volume analysis
  • • RSI divergences
  • • Support/resistance levels
  • • Trend analysis

Risk Management

  • • Stop loss below recent swing low
  • • Position size based on volatility
  • • Risk 1-2% per trade
  • • Use ATR for stop placement

Market Conditions

Ranging Markets

Bollinger Bounce works best • Fade the extremes

Trending Markets

Band Walking is common • Trade pullbacks to middle band

Timeframes

  • Intraday: 10-20 period
  • Daily: 20 period (default)
  • Weekly: 20-30 period
  • • Multiple timeframes for confluence

Summary

Bollinger Bands are a versatile tool for measuring volatility and identifying overbought/oversold conditions. They work best when:

  • • Combined with other indicators
  • • Adjusted for asset volatility
  • • Used with proper risk management
  • • Confirmed by volume and trend analysis

Start with the default settings (20, 2) and adjust based on backtesting results for your specific trading style and assets.